October 2008

$300 Million Later...

Many Canadians woke up this morning wondering just what this latest $300 million exercise in politics was good for. It's a damn good question.

Elizabeth May didn't manage a single seat.The Green's popular vote did increase and so will their funding. The one bright light for the Green Party is that a great many Canadians got to hear more of their platform than we were even aware existed. From proportional representation to guaranteed annual income there were a lot of ideas I like and they will definitely be worth watching as the party matures. At the very least some of their ideas might find themselves getting picked up by other parties. Let's hope so. All in all a disappointing finish for the Greens, but some glimmers of hope for the party.

Jack Layton ran a strong campaign, but still hasn't managed to convince Canadians that the NDP is a real option for government. While there was an increase in seats it certainly wasn't the jump they were hoping for and are trying to sell to Canadians. I think before the next election the NDP has a choice. As a third or fourth party, many people see the NDP as an irrelevant force in politics. And perhaps as a mainstream party trying to form the government they are. However they could always run as the conscience of a minority government and this is a place the NDP have performed spectacularly in the past. Think health care. Think EI. Think most of the things we now use to identify ourselves as Canadians.

Gilles Duceppe was his usual charming self, but realistically was handed his victory by the Conservatives. Once they realised that the arts cuts and tough on crime were not going to get them any seats in Quebec, the plan for Quebec was to block the Liberals. When the Conservatives attacked Dion's command of the English language and replayed the tape of his interview problems they knew it would push people to the Bloc. So did Duceppe and he took full advantage of the gift.

Stephane Dion put a brave face on the election last night, but his time is up. The Liberals were sharpening their knives before the polls closed, and perhaps rightly so. There was a moment in this campaign when there was a chance of a Liberal minority, and the movement from there to losing seats in the House will not sit well with the Liberals. I have no trouble with the Liberal Party fielding intellectuals as their party leader, but those intellectuals need to have something more. Because I'm smart and several smart people agree with me is not a way to win elections in Canada. People expect the Liberal Party to inspire them, to make them dream of a better Canada, and this inspiration was lacking from the campaign. It wasn't the Green Shift plan that killed them, it was that they allowed the Conservatives to define their plan. It's difficult to understand was the Conservative message and the Liberals never over came it. It's not difficult to understand. Tax polluters and pass that money directly to Canadians thru tax cuts. The tax cuts will be written into the same legislation that implements the carbon taxes. There you go - two sentences.

Stephen Harper's lot is more difficult to figure out. There shouldn't be any doubt that this election was called because Stephen Harper thought he could get a majority in parliament. There were other bonuses to be had, but the real goal was a majority government and the ability to unveil a plan that could then be pushed thru without any opposition until it hit the Senate, and any slowdown there would be used as fodder for eliminating the Senate. The main goals of this campaign were not reached. However there was an increase in seats and he has very effectively splintered his opposition As long as one party supports his legislation it will get thru the House. The fact that their main opposition will shortly be once again undergoing a leadership race should also give the Conservatives some satisfaction and some breathing room. There is one inescapable fact of this election tho, and it is getting a lot of press. With the opposition is complete disarray, with a fiscal crisis and the Conservatives usually seen as the fiscally responsible government, with the Green Shift being so easily managed, this should have been a stomp. This election should have returned a huge majority for the Conservatives and yet Stephen Harper could only manage to hold on to his minority. Surprisingly, when asked about this and whether he would resign because of it, Stephen Harper said he would fulfill his mandate, but didn't sound so enthusiastic about leading the Party through another election. Perhaps even Stephen knows he blew what will probably be his only chance to be King without opposition.

That leaves us with the Canadian people. You know, the folks who are supposed to be represented by parliament. $300 million dollars buys us a new Liberal leader, but not much else has changed. There's a chance that the Conservatives will strike a more cooperative tone once the House resumes, but I'm not holding my breath. Experience has told us that when Stephen Harper thinks the other parties are reluctant to force an election, he makes every vote a matter of confidence and acts as if he has a majority. I'm hopeful but not holding my breath. Then there's the voter turnout. The lowest voter turnout in Canadian history.

Voter turnout should be telling our politicians something loud and clear. The conservatives may have won just under 38% of the popular vote, but that's just 38% of half of the eligible voters, or somewhat less than 20% of eligible voters. Our country is now being run by someone that over 80% of eligible voters could not see themselves voting for. This should be sharing the stage with the economic crisis. It is as important. The strength of our democracy depends on people voting. The more people vote, the healthier our system is. There's not enough discussion in the mainstream about this, and when there is discussion the prevailing sentiment seems to be election fatigue. Too many elections in too short a time and so people drop out. I think this is a simplistic explanation, but it does touch on what I think the problem is.

Canadians overwhelmingly did not want an election, and yet we had one. Canadians expect our politicians to represent our views in Parliament, and yet there's been nothing but political infighting. Canadians voices are being ignored and lost in Ottawa. People see their vote as useless. That is what you hear if you actually ask the people who didn't vote instead of media pundits. "My vote doesn't mean anything." And you know what? They're right. Perhaps it's time we started talking about that.

All in all it was a disappointing evening for everyone involved. Now we have another minority government. Maybe we'll get that election in the fall of 2009 like we were supposed to after all.

Today Is The Day

Today is the day we get to vote. We get to vote. I'm not going to rant about why it's a privilege or any of that. Just think of it as the ultimate combination of Canadian Idol and So You Think You Can Dance. Vote for your favourite entertainer if politics bores you.

For me there are a couple of things that are driving me this election. One hasn't been mentioned at all in the media, by any of the parties or even this blog. Digital rights. The Conservatives introduced legislation that would see Canada have some of the most restrictive copyright rules in the world. More restrictive even than the U.S. Remember, in the U.S., record labels chase down little old ladies and preteens in their rabid approach to copyright protection. For more information on this topic, Michael Geist has prepared a list of parties and candidates who are willing to pursue more reasonable approaches to copyright protection in Canada. I'm an artist and a writer, I believe in the need for artistic creators to have control over their work, but I also believe in strong "fair use" laws, and if I buy a cd, I want to be able to make a copy for the car.

Integrity is the other. Look at my blog posting for yesterday and it will be obvious which party strikes me as having the most trouble with integrity in government, and has shown no signs that either they understand or are going to stop. Liberals complain that the Conservatives tried bribing a dying MP for his vote. The Conservatives take them to court, not because they will win the court case, but because it pushes that discussion until after the election. It seems apparent now that the Conservatives will lose the court case, but they will have won by pushing it out of the election discussion. When Elections Canada found the Conservatives had broken the rules of campaigning last election did the Conservative Party vow to punish those responsible? No, they took Elections Canada to court. Once again the Conservatives will lose the court case, but succeeded in pushing it out of the election discussion. The list is long. And then of course there was the law passed to set election dates. If the Conservatives don't even respect the laws they themselves passed, what chance is there for them to abide by the rule of law in this country?

ABC my friends. Anything But Conservative.

Talking Turkey

Some families have rules against talking politics during dinner, but I suspect that there will be a lot of conversation this weekend about the upcoming election. So, what shall we talk about?

How about a party that follows the rule of law? There wasn't supposed to be an election until next year.

How about a party that doesn't try to bribe dying candidates? And then push it to a lawsuit that won't be decided until after the election to keep it from becoming an issue during the campaign.

How about a party that believes in climate change and actually wants to try and do something about it?

How about a party that, if elected, will represent all Canadians, not just those who voted for them?

How about a party that won't push Quebecers into the arms of the Bloc, just to stop their opponents?

How about a party that let's it's members actually speak without being afraid of their flat earth views frightening most Canadians?

How about a party that doesn't continue chanting deregulation even after the listeriosis deaths, the market melt down and say, does anyone remember Enron?

How about a party that actually practices fiscal responsibility, instead of breaking the bank and wiping out our contigency fund?

How about a party that tres to inspire people to attract their votes instead of frightening voters by name calling and mud slinging?

How about a party that isn't the Conservative Party of Canada?

Anything but Conservative.

The Race

Jim Flaherty was speaking today from the finance minister summits in Washington. His interview was on CBC and it was his chance to tell Canadians and international markets what Canada's thoughts and plans were. And while a well placed swipe at his opponents in this election may have been expected, spending the entire end of the interview bashing Liberal policies reflect badly on our government and will not help the markets. But then maybe the markets are just waiting for someone to get elected who doesn't think everything is grand as they watch their world melting down.

Stephane Dion seems to have become re energised of late. While we didn't see Jean Chretien until yesterday, Stephane Dion's recent ability to take the cheap shots from the Conservatives and turn it into momentum hasn't been seen since, well, Jean Chretien. Whatever it takes. ABC.

Unfortunately for Elizabeth May and Jack Layton, the Conservatives self destruction gave the Liberal's a glimmer of hope, and the media has followed along, speculating as to the possibility of a Liberal minority. Our media seems to feel a need to reduce this to a 2 team race, and so marginalises anyone it perceives as not being a front runner. Think of how confused those poor folks would get if we had proportional representation.

Oh, and "nothing is certain" is not a big idea. It's not even a medium idea. It's the kind of idea teenagers find earth shattering the first time they get high.

The Conservative Job Plan

You'll be hearing a lot about the 107,000 jobs that were created in Canada in September. What they're not going to mention is that 97,000 of those jobs are part time. Basically they're proud of the fact that they have maintained and extended the number of working poor in this country.

Conservative Slogans And Inspiration

Vote for Conservative and avoid a recession.

That was Stephen Harper's slogan today. Wow. I feel inspired. Come on people, is that all we're hoping for from our future? Not to mention the Conservative record on keeping Canada in good fiscal shape is lousy. And speaking of recessions....if I had bought stock a couple of days ago like Stephen told me to, I would have lost more money wouldn't I???

The Green Party is once again being accused of being in cahoots with the Liberals and the Conservatives are once again suggesting that Green candidates are going to throw their support behind the Liberals before Tuesday. I doubt if the Green Party would do that before the election. It would spell death for the party just as they were breaking through the popular vote. After the election is a different story. Personally I would be impressed if I saw two or more parties actually working together in the House.

Also of note today was Ed Broadbent campaigning with Jack Layton, and Jean Chretien touring with Stephane Dion. Notice the Conservatives aren't touring their former stars. I wonder why.....

Stealing The Bully's Marbles

Stephen Harper has often been called a bully, and it's a name that has, in the past, fit. His attitude and actions were seen as taking advantage of his opponents weaknesses, and repeatedly kicking them while they were down. His political maneuvering has displayed a ruthlessness that stood apart in a city of ruthlessness. And while most professional politicians have mastered the two face dance, Mr Harper is exceptionally good at it.

Mr Harper's plan this election was to win a majority government. He was watching support wane for the Bloc in Quebec where he knew the Liberals were disorganised. The new Liberal leader had been having problems reaching out to members of his own party as well as the public at large. And while the NDP may be getting better at wielding their third party power, I don't think Mr Harper ever took the NDP seriously as a threat to his quest for power.

This morning Stephen Harper rearranged his travel schedule to let the reporters following his campaign watch tape of Stephane Dion. Seems Stephane had a bit of trouble during an interview last night and the Conservatives grabbed tape from the cutting room floor to show off and claim it proved Stephane wasn't ready to rule. Normally this would have been seen as another classic bully by Mr Harper, but what happens when the bullying no longer inspires fear and respect?

Mr Harper's move hasn't gotten the expected response. No-one is willing to jump on the bandwagon with him and even Jack Layton brushes it off as irrelevant. Which it was. Unfortunately for Mr Harper, when a bully no longer inspires fear, his actions are seen in a very different light. Perhaps in a more realistic light. Stephen Harper's actions this morning seem less like a bully, and more like a spoiled child stamping it's feet when he doesn't get what he wants.

The Morning Speeches

Stephane Dion gave a very passionate speech today, and is no longer trying to hold the Conservative Party to a minority - he's talking about winning the election himself. He's reached this new plateau because of two things. First of all he got out of the leader vs leader debate that Stephen Harper tried to make this election, and has turned it into a party vs party election. And Stephane Dion and the Liberals have a much deeper and impressive back cast than the Conservatives do. Perhaps more important to Mr Dion's recent success.....Mr Harper has been sinking like a rock since the debate and his lack luster approach to the economy. Note to Stephane Dion - change that "aren't you impressed?" to "aren't they impressive?"

Mr Haper seems to be getting bad advice. Really bad advice. Let's take as given that the core supporters of the Conservative Party are always going to vote conservative and this election is all about the undecided and people to the left of the Prime Minister. "There's lots of bargains in the stock market right now" doesn't speak to the average Canadian. In today's speech it was,"I talk to my mother every night about her stocks". Your mother? Apparently this is aimed at the teenage vote. Don't have any stock of your own Stephen? What does that say?

Game Plans

This election campaign has been great for allowing insight into the runnings of an election. We are given three very different views of a campaign. Stephen Harper is playing the purest politics out there. His iron grip is around the throats of his candidates so they can't say anything. The message that they want to put out to the voter is very controlled and they are terrified of falling off of their message. So what is their message? That in the absence of any real discussion on the issues they are the party of choice. You'll notice this hasn't been done by putting forth ideas, policy and proposal. Instead they are demonising they're opponents. If you want to see who they think is closest on their heels - watch and see who they are putting down the hardest. Right now it seems to be the NDP in BC and the Liberals in Ontario.

The Liberals are running what I think to be the most painful of political campaigns. An earnest guy with an obsession for policy thinks that's all it takes to sweep us all away in his mad vision. Ok, so maybe his vision isn't that mad. It's hard to tell. I'm not sure I have ever heard so many people complain about a candidate's ability to speak English. Let's be honest here, Mr Dion is no more difficult to understand than say, Mr Chretien. Remember him? Mr Chretien had us smiling and feeling slightly protective of his mangled English, so why are we so down on Mr Dion? I think because his ability or lack thereof with language is a perfect symbol of his campaign and it's inability to make us feel. People want to vote with their heads, but they vote with their hearts.

Mr Layton and the NDP have perhaps the most difficult campaign to run. For years the NDP have had no hope of actually getting anywhere federally, and so were able to make all kinds of wild promises and use stirring election slogans that frightened anyone even vaguely right of centre. This was perfect for rallying their core group of a dozen voters, however this election they actually see some light at the end of that tunnel to mainstream. If they run their campaign properly they could replace the Liberals as the "other" choice for most Canadians. Unfortunately the NDP can't seem to bring their game up to mainstream political standards. Their message is getting better, but still has much of that "fringe party" feel to it that becomes more annoying to voters the further right of left you move. If the NDP are ever going to make it to the Official Opposition or even Government, they need to mainstream their message and stop scaring the centrist voters.

I'd like to evaluate the Bloc's election plan, but it doesn't matter. I live in "other than Quebec". Just as well. I really like Gilles and it's hard enough loving a separatist when you can't vote for him. If he were a Liberal I doubt this would even be a close race, and his English isn't a lot better - he is. As for Elizabeth May - I hope the NDP are paying attention. With absolutely no ability to do any more than hope and pray for a couple of seats, their message is decidedly not fringe. More mainstream than the NDP, the Greens are watching their policy get picked up by the big boys, and that's something that hasn't happened as often to the NDP as almost everyone thinks it should. I like Green policy. I've been surprised how much of it sounds exactly like me in the last few years.

That said, I still believe that this in an ABC election. Anything But Conservative. Unfortunately my vote will not go for a vision, but against one. Why? Because Harper's Conservatives would change the world into a place where it was impossible to actually do any of the things I'd like to see us try. And I'd still like to see us try.

The Great Debate Round One

My apologies for the pause, there was some travelling that interupted. But enough about me.

Unfortunately I was listening to the translated debate as my French is not practised as my English. My over all first impression was that Mr Harper was very close to releasing the demon within, diving over the table and throttling someone. His eyes were cold and his smile tight even if the voice was smooth as silk. He stuck on message fairly well though. I am king and none of these other clowns could do the job.

Elizabeth May did very well, and was very blunt and direct in her crticisms of the Governments serious lack of policy in regards the environment. She was much softer in her crticisms of the other leaders, which is her stated agenda. ABC.

Jack Layton looked good. He managed to maintain focus on Mr Harper. He easily dismissed a fiesty Stephane Dion with a nod to the number of years the Liberal Party had a chance to do things, like child care and environment. A wierd alliance was struck with Mr Duceppe on the cap and trade system that helped him deal with the carbon tax of the Liberals and Greens.

Stephane Dion did well. He managed to easily hold his own at the table, let Elizabeth May be the knife to Mr Harper's enviromental throat and looked very comfortable. He will be trying very hard to turn in an equally good performance in English tonight.

Gilles Duceppe has always made me wish he wasn't for Quebec independance and did again last night. The man is sharp, witty and clever. He too was on more of an ABC mission than he was bothering with anyone else. His shots at Mr Dion were for the most part gentle ribbings, but he landed some wonderful shots on Mr Haper. I am looking forward to his performance the most tonight to see how and what message he tries to drive home to English Canadians. Will it just be ABC or will the wiley politician pull some sort of odd endorsement out of his pocket.

All in all it's as a good a wind up to the English debates as we're going to get. I'm looking forward to them.